405 Bella Montagna Circle — Pricing Analysis

Daniel & Jacquelyn Foreman | Foreman Property Group | eXp Realty Luxury

Prepared October 23, 2026 · MLS data current as of October 23, 2026

The Position

405 Bella Montagna is one of the largest homes in the gate. It sits on a full acre of heritage oaks and has outdoor living built around an elevated negative-edge pool that looks out over the greenbelt. Few homes in Lakeway have its space or its setting.

The market is pricing finish level and condition, not size. Large Lakeway homes with dated interiors are selling at $238–$265 per square foot. Updated homes are selling above $300. The roughly $300,000 gap between those two outcomes is what this analysis measures.

We are presenting two paths: list the home as it stands today, or complete a focused make-ready first. Both are modeled from the same sales.

Property Snapshot



Living area

6,763 SF (Travis CAD)

Bedrooms / baths

5 / 4+

Year built

2013

Lot

1.00 acre, backing to greenbelt

Stories

Two

Garage

Five cars: three-car and two-car side-entry

Pool

Elevated negative-edge pool with built-in spa, surge-tank system

Living areas

Study, family room, plus four upstairs: game room, media room, studio/fitness, front sitting room

Outdoor

Covered multi-zone outdoor living, lower dining deck, swim-up bar seating, front and rear upper covered balconies

What Sets This Home Apart

  • A primary wing that takes up the whole side of the house. It has 14-foot beamed ceilings, views of the pool and greenbelt, a jetted tub, a frameless shower, and a dressing area connected to the closet.
  • An arrival that sets the tone. A three-tier fountain, a two-story foyer with a wood-clad curved staircase, and a study framed by antique Gothic church windows brought over from England.
  • A two-sided fireplace shared by the study and the family room.
  • A kitchen built for hosting. It has a soapstone island with a live edge and leathered finish, a 48" professional cooktop, double wall ovens, and a 48" built-in refrigerator.
  • Outdoor living at the level of the main floor. The pool was built up to match the home's elevation and opens directly off the family room, the casual dining area and the primary suite.
  • Room for a large household. Four bedroom suites and four living areas upstairs, plus five garage bays.

Micro-Market Context

Inside the gate, five resales have closed in the last 24 months, at $1.53M–$2.37M. None was larger than 5,183 SF.

Across Lakeway, resales of 5,500–8,500 SF on lots of 0.75 acre or more closed at $238–$321/SF over the past year.

Absorption is slow. Right now there are no pending sales in this size band, and none have closed in the last 30 days. Eight homes are listed at $1.6M–$3.25M.

Only one of the eight comparable resales closed at or above its launch price. As a group, they closed at a median of 83.4% of their original list price after 166 days.

Closed Comparable Sales — Resale, 24 Months

The first five are inside the gate. Each launch price is the first list price, including earlier listings that were later withdrawn or expired.

Price per square foot drops as homes get larger. Homes under 5,200 SF traded at $379–$473/SF, while homes over 5,500 SF traded at $238–$321/SF. At 6,763 SF, the subject belongs with the larger group.

Address

Built

SF

View

Launch

Closed

$/SF

% of launch

Days

301 Bella Montagna

2013

3,343

Neighborhood

$1,495,000

$1,525,000

$456

102.0%

51

306 Bella Montagna

2005

5,016

Hill Country

$2,750,000

$2,374,700

$473

86.4%

85

208 Palazza Alto

2014

4,435

Lake, panoramic

$2,499,900

$2,076,185

$468

83.1%

189

205 Palazza Alto

2017

5,183

Lake (no pool)

$2,400,000

$1,600,000

$309

66.7%

388

303 Bella Montagna

2013

4,753

Greenbelt, panoramic

$2,150,000

$1,799,000

$379

83.7%

143

109 Bella Cima

2005

8,228

Lake, panoramic

$3,499,870

$2,645,000

$321

75.6%

211

3800 Scenic Overlook

2013

5,789

Lake (no pool)

$1,850,000

$1,380,000

$238

74.6%

248

111 Sebastians Run

2004

6,114

—

$1,695,000

$1,496,000

$245

88.3%

36

Active Competition

Bottom quartile by price: at or below $2.24M. A list price of $2,099,000 would place the subject third-lowest of nine, while offering more square footage than all but one of the competing homes.

The most direct competitor is 104 Bella Strada Cove: similar size and age, with a Hill Country view, relisted at $1.899M. Buyers will compare the two directly.

Address

SF

List

$/SF

Days

Note

312 Camino Arbolago

6,310

$1,595,000

$253

123

Launched $1.87M; withdrawn, relisted

104 Bella Strada Cv

6,323

$1,899,000

$300

21

Relisted; previously $2.3M

303 Camino Arbolago

5,734

$2,350,000

$410

46

1.71 acres

422 Treasure Peak Pass

5,865

$2,695,000

$460

—

2021 build

206 Bella Cima

6,056

$2,799,000

$462

149

Launched $3.2M

108 Palazza Alto

7,943

$2,990,000

$376

168

Same gate, lake view; launched $3.15M

16005 Chateau Ave

5,988

$2,995,000

$500

157

Launched $3.295M

17800 Flagler Dr

5,807

$3,250,000

$560

166

Launched $3.599M

Value Analysis — Post-Make-Ready Condition

Anchor: 303 Bella Montagna (same gate, same 2013 vintage, greenbelt view, infinity pool)

Bracket: 109 Bella Cima (larger, with a lake view)

Reconciled value after make-ready: $2.05M–$2.20M. We give 303 Bella Montagna the most weight because it shares the gate, the vintage and the view.

As-is value: $1.65M–$1.79M ($244–$265/SF). This range is set by the large Lakeway resales with dated finishes: 3800 Scenic Overlook at $238/SF, 111 Sebastians Run at $245/SF, and 312 Camino Arbolago, which has been listed for 123 days at $253/SF.

Anchor: 303 Bella Montagna

Adjustment

Closed price, June 2026

$1,799,000

Size: +2,010 SF at $150/SF contributory

+$301,500

Garage: 5 bays vs. 4

+$10,000

View, pool and lot

Comparable

Indicated value

$2,110,500 ($312/SF)

Bracket: 109 Bella Cima

Adjustment

Closed price, November 2025

$2,645,000

Size: −1,465 SF at $150/SF

−$219,750

View: lake panoramic vs. greenbelt

−$200,000

Age: 2005 vs. 2013

+$40,000

Indicated value

$2,265,250 ($335/SF)

The Launch-Price Pattern

Homes that launched above the market lost about 16 points of their launch price and spent about five additional months on the market. 303 Bella Montagna shows the pattern: it was first listed at $2,150,000 and did not sell. Relisted at $1,825,000, it sold in 16 days at $1,799,000.


Homes

Median % of launch

Median days

Priced right from day one

2

95.1%

44

Reduced after launch

6

79.3%

200

Path A — List As-Is

Read the "modeled close" row first. It is drawn from the comparable sales. The list price is only where the conversation with buyers starts.

As-is, the home competes directly with 312 Camino Arbolago ($1.595M, 123 days). Buyers will also deduct for the pool equipment, the flooring and the lighting, and they will base those deductions on their own bids rather than ours.


Velocity

Recommended

Test

List price

$1,749,000

$1,849,000

$1,995,000

$/SF

$259

$273

$295

Modeled close

$1.66M

$1.70M–$1.76M

$1.58M–$1.70M after reductions

Expected days on market

60–90

90–150

180+

Path B — Complete the Make-Ready, Then List

Read the "modeled close" row first.

If the Test tier is preferred, we recommend a written agreement to move to $2,099,000 on day 21.


Velocity

Recommended

Test

List price

$1,995,000

$2,099,000

$2,249,000

$/SF

$295

$310

$333

Modeled close

$1.90M

$1.99M–$2.05M

$1.99M–$2.05M after one reduction

Expected days on market

Under 30

30–60

90–150

The Two Paths Side by Side

On the modeled closes alone, Path B comes out roughly $164,500–$203,000 ahead after the work is paid for. It also gives buyers far less room to negotiate on condition, and it puts the home among the updated homes rather than with the dated listings.


Path A (as-is)

Path B (make-ready)

Modeled close

$1.70M–$1.76M

$1.99M–$2.05M

Make-ready investment

—

$87K–$125.5K (working allowance)

Expected days on market

90–150

30–60

Months of carry

~5

~2 on market + ~2 of work

Who sets the repair credit

The buyer

We do, before launch

Recommendation

Complete the make-ready and list at $2,099,000.

At that price the home is in the bottom quartile of current competition and is backed by the 303 Bella Montagna grid. It also enters the market below the point where Lakeway luxury listings have needed reductions to sell. Any path to $2.2M or more depends on early showing activity. If we see multiple showings and second visits in the first two weekends, we will hold firm on price rather than reach higher.

Pre-List Make-Ready

Sequence: clean-out → repairs and lighting → flooring and paint → staging → photography

Every allowance is a placeholder until we have contractor bids.

Septic: We recommend requesting the on-site septic permit records now, from LCRA or Travis County depending on which agency holds the permit, so the design capacity is documented before a buyer asks.

Item

Scope

Working allowance

Clean-out and staging edit

Cathy identifies the pieces to keep; everything else is removed

Included with staging

Flooring

Replace the 18x18 tile on the main level (excluding the primary suite) with wood, blended to the stair and primary-suite wood

$35K–$50K

Interior paint

Lighter neutral throughout, including the sage primary suite. Kitchen cabinets may also need painting a lighter color.

$25K–$35K

Lighting

All recessed cans to 3000K LED; replace dated fixtures; review exterior lighting

$7.5K–$12K

Pool

Repair the heater and replace the main pump and fountain pump; replace the damaged mosaic tile

$10K–$12K

Landscaping

Finish the front: zoysia or a continuation of the rockscape at the fountain

$4K–$7K

Kitchen

Reinstall the built-in microwave

Minor

Professional staging

Main level, upstairs living areas, primary suite, covered outdoor living and pool deck

$1.5K–$3.5K

Windows

Clean inside and out and remove screens

$1.5K–$2.5K

Power washing

All flatwork, decking, and anywhere organic growth

$2.5K–$3.5K

Total

$87K–$125.5K

FPG Marketing & Concierge Plan

Contractor coordination and oversight during the make-ready, with weekly progress updates

Professional photography, twilight exteriors and aerials of the acre and greenbelt, a 3D tour and a cinematic film

A launch campaign aimed at relocating families who need space for a large household near Lake Travis ISD

A private broker preview before public launch

Weekly showing feedback, with a pricing review at days 14 and 21

First 30 Days

Window

Focus

Days 1–7

Coming-soon marketing, broker preview, launch of the film and photography

Days 8–14

First open houses; collect feedback and track showing pace

Day 14

Pricing review against showings and second visits

Days 15–21

Targeted outreach to agents with active large-home buyers

Day 21

Decision point: hold, or adjust using the pre-agreed plan

Days 22–30

Push on whatever the feedback shows buyers are focused on

What This Means for the Buyer's Numbers

  • Property taxes: the 2026 assessed value is $2,153,679. At an approximate 1.8% combined rate, that is about $3,200 per month, and a sale near $2.0M resets the assessment around the purchase price.
  • HOA: Bella Montagna dues are modest relative to the price point.
  • Pool system: documented service records and new equipment take an operating-cost question off the table for the buyer.

Next Steps

Walk the home with Cathy to finalize the staging plan and the clean-out list

Collect contractor bids for flooring, paint, lighting and pool, and replace the working allowances

Request the septic (OSSF) permit records

Agree on the make-ready schedule and target launch date

Review the net sheet at the confirmed list price